CEO’s Executive Summary
The bilateral relationship whipsawed from good news to bad news to utter frustration these past few weeks. With the delivery of the International Trade Commission’s economic analysis and the Mexican Congress’ approval of labor reform, the door has, theoretically, creaked open for the ratification of the USMCA. Yet many U.S. domestic hurdles remain, including metals tariffs, significant Democratic (and some Republican) Party opposition, and a rapidly closing window of opportunity due to the Canadian and U.S. electoral calendars. Despite our highest hopes, we remain concerned that ratification of the agreement will likely be postponed until after the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
President Trump finally nominated a new ambassador to Mexico, but Christopher Landau waits for Senate confirmation along with 31 other ambassadorial nominees. Jared Kushner’s seemingly successful March visit to Mexico was followed by a good ministerial meeting on migration, but both were overshadowed by a series of Trump tweets in which the president threatened to close the border and tax Mexican auto exports if Mexico did not meet his migration demands. And, although the president ultimately backed down, his decision to reassign border personnel away from ports of entry generated massive and costly delays at key border crossings. His constant tweets attacking Mexico remain a continuing irritant in the bilateral relationship that is very unlikely to abate.
In Mexico, President López Obrador announced that his government would stop implementing the 2013 education reform. The dubious constitutionality of this unilateral decision will almost certainly be challenged in the courts, but in the meantime AMLO has bought time and political space to deal with the radical wing of the teachers’ movement. This action will do little, however, to strengthen the private sector’s wavering confidence in the rule of law in AMLO’s Mexico. And as for the substance of a desperately needed education reform, only time will tell…
Despite a macroeconomy stabilized by a balanced budget and large capital inflows, growth in Mexico remains anemic and investor confidence in the business climate remains weak. The private sector reacted poorly to the labor reform recently approved by Congress, the declared end to the “neoliberal policies” of the past, a legislative proposal to expand the Supreme Court and pack it with AMLO supporters, and AMLO’s insistence that “justice” should outweigh the law. At the same time, a series of resignations has allowed AMLO to appoint a majority of both the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) and Pemex’s board of directors, thus reducing the independence of two key institutions intended to provide market-informed oversight of his energy policies.
In the energy sector, Pemex is shaping up to be AMLO’s Achilles’ heel by requiring more capital than his government can realistically provide. His broader government-led energy strategy drives his Pemex policy-making, and it informed recent actions by leadership of the state-owned electricity company (CFE). CFE is attempting to revise contracts signed with private actors under the previous administration and to delay new power auctions on the premise that there is no need to buy energy from the private sector when CFE can produce it itself. Meanwhile, the construction of the Dos Bocas refinery in Tabasco and the Mayan Train through the Yucatán Peninsula continue to be fast tracked.
Full Newsletter: Monarch News – March/April 2019
Open in New Page Download File